New report aims to start conversation for district’s future towards 2050

1 November 2024

Higher paid jobs, increased productivity, and an enviable quality of life for all that live here - it might sound too good to be true, yet realistically this needs to be what we aspire to for our district through to 2050 and beyond.

As the economic and tourism agency for the district, Venture Timaru commissioned economist Benje Patterson of People and Places to project where the district could be by 2050, primarily to kick start the conversation about our future.

The ensuing report, “Scenarios of an aspirational economic future for Timaru District”, looked at current trends across four key economic indicators - gross domestic product (GDP), job numbers, population growth and productivity - and assessed what the district would look like in 2050 if the status quo remained versus the hypothetical “a bit more” and “much better” scenarios.

The report describes the “much better” scenario as the most “ambitious and transformational”, with employment increasing by 16,500 jobs and the district’s GDP nearly tripling.

The report highlights that maintaining the status quo presents challenges due to our aging population and rising death rate, a trend similar to most provincial areas across New Zealand. By 2050, 30 percent of our population will be at retirement age.

To counteract this and keep our current level of employment, Timaru’s population will, as a minimum, need to increase from 50,200 to 53,000.

“The results were quite confronting – on current trends come 2050 we are neither better off nor do we maintain status quo, we actually go backwards, and this, being something I’m sure we all agree on, is simply not acceptable,” says Venture Timaru chief executive Nigel Davenport.

“Put bluntly we need to do much better to maintain and then enhance the vibrancy and prosperity of our great district.”

Currently Timaru has a competitive advantage in the food and fibre, logistics and professional, scientific and technical services sectors.

“Moving forward it is important we play to and enhance our existing strengths but also explore and attract adjacent and new business while embracing innovation and creativity,” says Davenport.

He believes now is the time to be bold, innovative and aspirational about the future of our district.

Timaru mayor Nigel Bowen agrees it is time to take an aspirational approach to our future explore and offer new opportunities including breaking into new industries and markets, leading to more and higher-paying jobs.

“This is all about igniting a collaborative and cohesive aspirational approach to ‘all our district can be and so much more’ come 2050 and beyond. Importantly, this will not be informed by individuals but by all of us,” says Bowen.

“There will be no re-inventing any wheels, rather plans already underway across various sectors and areas will be brought together in a way that we can all grasp, advocate for and play our part in making happen,” he says.

Davenport says while there is much more work to be done yet, he is excited about the next 1-2 years as Venture Timaru helps facilitate this important work with the wider community and helps bring a Towards 2050 plan to life.

“Widespread engagement across our community will get underway, as everyone who calls the district home has an important role to play, and we are keen to hear from everyone.

“An online platform has been established to seek input from the wider community to help inform the Towards 2050 plan with this complimenting a variety of in person catch ups planned.

“All are invited to share thoughts on how we can achieve a bolder, more innovative, and aspirational future for our district leading to 2050 and beyond.

“The information gathered will be collated to help develop and implement the Towards 2050 plan, which will encompass our communities’ aspirations for our district, along with associated barriers to achievement and the opportunities to overcome these,” he says.

Check out the website here

For more information contact:

Nigel Davenport
Venture Timaru
nigel@venturetimaru.nz